trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 0% | 0% | -10.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 14% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 28 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 39% | 0% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.7% | 0% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -19.2% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -27.0% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -34.2% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 25 | $83 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $43 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $16 | $0 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $86 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 24 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Dec 14 | $2 | −$1 | -37% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 05 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 03 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 02 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Jun 01 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | May 31 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | May 30 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump remove Harvard tax exempt status? | May 28 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | May 27 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | May 27 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? | May 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | May 22 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Trump signs national abortion ban? | Apr 08 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 06 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? | Apr 04 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the | Apr 02 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $12 | +$1 | +5% |