Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c2b…6142 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 44% $0
politics 7% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 3 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.1%
all 28 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage454d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $83 −$1 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $43 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $16 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $3 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 15 $2 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 31 $11 $0 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove Harvard tax exempt status? May 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $13 $0 -1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $12 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $6 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $35 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $41 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $18 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $11 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $41 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $41 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $42 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $42 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $16 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $4 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $12 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $44 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $43 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.54 · official $1.92 (match) · 84 history records