Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5c2a…a4bb sports 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$987 (-2%) realized −$987 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%112W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$549est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$708
7 days+$2,461
14 days+$1,341
30 days+$2,060
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$743
other 12% −$271
politics 1% +$37
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +43.9% +30.2% 53% 53% +52.8%
≤30d 102 +10.8% +0.2% 46% 46% +2.4%
≤90d 253 -13.3% -21.6% 37% 37% -21.9%
all 272 -5.4% -14.4% 41% 41% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 41% -11.5%
10% -22.6% 40% -20.0%
15% -30.1% 39% -27.7%
20% -36.9% 38% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$145 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized−$987
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses112 / 160
Est. fees paid−$549
Open positions2
Markets (closed)272 / 274
History coverage148d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 48¢ $188 $208 +$20 (+10%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien Hugo Dellien 11¢ 10¢ $225 $205 −$19 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $99 +$323 +325%
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Tiafoe Jun 20 $97 −$96 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$98 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $482 +$579 +120%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $97 +$124 +129%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $98 −$96 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $103 +$92 +90%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $58 −$57 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $111 +$245 +221%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $106 −$103 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $126 +$284 +226%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 +$133 +129%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $109 −$107 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $116 +$82 +70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $176 +$541 +307%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $228 +$282 +124%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $92 +$90 +97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $191 +$129 +67%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) Jun 16 $114 +$77 +68%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$414 +414%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $104 −$103 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $94 −$93 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $86 −$84 -98%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $111 +$76 +68%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $86 +$224 +262%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $227 +$259 +114%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $147 +$80 +55%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $195 +$157 +81%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $202 +$135 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $81 +$316 +388%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $103 −$97 -94%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $231 −$228 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$130 +129%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $201 −$199 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $79 −$77 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $201 −$197 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $200 −$197 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $159 −$156 -98%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $243 −$240 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $166 −$162 -98%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $101 −$98 -97%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $198 −$198 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $191 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien BUY Hugo Dellien 11¢ $218 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien BUY Hugo Dellien 10¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien BUY Hugo Dellien 10¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien BUY Hugo Dellien 10¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Hugo Dellien BUY Hugo Dellien 10¢ $12 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $99 9h
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Tiafoe BUY Altmaier 44¢ $97 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $101 33h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $800 33h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 31¢ $8 35h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 32¢ $253 35h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 66¢ $161 35h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 66¢ $20 35h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 66¢ $20 35h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 66¢ $1 35h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 66¢ $59 35h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 55¢ $221 40h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $97 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $98 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $103 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.31 · official $413.31 (match) · 622 history records