Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5c26…0b31 crypto 817 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$489 (-9%) realized −$487 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate37%305W / 510L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$969
14 days−$1,259
30 days−$1,345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,348
other 0% −$4
sports 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -90.8% -91.7% 6% 2% -77.9%
≤30d 705 -37.4% -43.3% 34% 20% -25.6%
≤90d 713 -35.9% -42.0% 35% 20% -25.2%
all 815 -32.7% -39.1% 37% 21% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.1% 21% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -45.0% 9% -31.9%
15% -50.3% 6% -38.4%
20% -55.2% 6% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$487
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses305 / 510
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)815 / 817
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 815 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Fenerbahce (-4.5) Fenerbahce 70¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jun 15 $5 −$10 -200%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$6 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$6 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$7 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$10 -137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 48m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Spread: Fenerbahce (-4.5) BUY Fenerbahce 70¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
HYPE Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.72 · official $2.72 (match) · 3500 history records