trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +32.2% | +19.6% | 62% | 62% | +21.1% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +12.7% | +2.0% | 50% | 42% | +1.7% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +11.2% | +0.6% | 50% | 39% | -5.3% |
| all | 55 | -16.2% | -24.1% | 31% | 24% | -14.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -24.1% | 24% | -14.1% |
| 10% | -31.4% | 22% | -22.3% |
| 15% | -38.0% | 20% | -29.8% |
| 20% | -44.1% | 20% | -36.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 | Over | 50¢ | 38¢ | $100 | $76 | −$24 (-24%) |
| Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 | Over | 53¢ | 15¢ | $106 | $30 | −$76 (-72%) |
| Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 | Over | 22¢ | 0¢ | $22 | $0 | −$22 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 | Jun 21 | $96 | +$87 | +91% |
| England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 | Jun 17 | $56 | +$44 | +79% |
| Spread: England (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $47 | +$44 | +93% |
| England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners | Jun 17 | $94 | +$87 | +93% |
| England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 | Jun 17 | $99 | +$51 | +51% |
| Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | Jun 17 | $100 | −$81 | -81% |
| Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 | Jun 17 | $66 | −$33 | -50% |
| Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $20 | −$4 | -19% |
| Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 14 | $385 | −$34 | -9% |
| Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? | May 31 | $103 | +$9 | +9% |
| Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? | May 26 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? | May 26 | $151 | −$8 | -5% |
| Will Citrea launch a token by September 30, 2027? | May 12 | $660 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Apr 28 | $1,170 | −$5 | -0% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Apr 15 | $652 | $0 | -0% |
| Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Apr 13 | $377 | +$125 | +33% |
| Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? | Apr 13 | $131 | +$19 | +15% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 25 | $2,364 | +$12 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Mar 21 | $43 | −$2 | -4% |
| Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Mar 21 | $474 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Mar 18 | $447 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Mar 16 | $503 | −$1 | -0% |
| Warriors vs. Knicks | Mar 16 | $5 | −$2 | -31% |
| Pacers vs. Celtics | Jan 22 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Hornets | Jan 22 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Knicks | Jan 22 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Raptors | Jan 17 | $155 | −$30 | -19% |
| Bulls vs. Nets | Jan 17 | $15 | −$1 | -5% |
| Hornets vs. Lakers | Jan 16 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Rockets | Jan 16 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Kings | Jan 15 | $80 | −$78 | -97% |
| Jazz vs. Bulls | Jan 15 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Pelicans | Jan 15 | $30 | +$16 | +54% |
| Raptors vs. Pacers | Jan 15 | $30 | −$20 | -67% |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | Jan 15 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5 | Jan 14 | $52 | −$8 | -16% |
| Nuggets vs. Pelicans | Jan 14 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Heat | Jan 14 | $100 | +$135 | +135% |
| Bulls vs. Rockets | Jan 14 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jan 13 | $30 | −$4 | -13% |
| Timberwolves vs. Bucks | Jan 13 | $30 | −$1 | -2% |
| Hornets vs. Clippers | Jan 13 | $100 | +$65 | +65% |
| Lakers vs. Kings | Jan 13 | $50 | −$5 | -11% |
| Celtics vs. Pacers | Jan 13 | $42 | +$64 | +151% |
| Nets vs. Mavericks | Jan 13 | $50 | +$4 | +8% |
| 76ers vs. Raptors | Jan 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Cavaliers | Jan 13 | $100 | +$197 | +197% |
| Rockets vs. Kings | Jan 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | Jan 12 | $10 | +$28 | +282% |
| Bucks vs. Nuggets | Jan 12 | $40 | −$16 | -40% |