Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5c25…5410 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$297 (-3%) realized −$175 · open −$122
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 38L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$196
14 days+$162
30 days+$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$744
other 27% +$102
world 22% +$10
crypto 11% −$5
economics 5% −$1
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +32.2% +19.6% 62% 62% +21.1%
≤30d 12 +12.7% +2.0% 50% 42% +1.7%
≤90d 18 +11.2% +0.6% 50% 39% -5.3%
all 55 -16.2% -24.1% 31% 24% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 24% -14.1%
10% -31.4% 22% -22.3%
15% -38.0% 20% -29.8%
20% -44.1% 20% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$40 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$175
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage178d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 38¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 15¢ $106 $30 −$76 (-72%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 22¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $96 +$87 +91%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$44 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $94 +$87 +93%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $99 +$51 +51%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 −$81 -81%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $66 −$33 -50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$4 -19%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 14 $385 −$34 -9%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 31 $103 +$9 +9%
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $151 −$8 -5%
Will Citrea launch a token by September 30, 2027? May 12 $660 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 28 $1,170 −$5 -0%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 15 $652 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 13 $377 +$125 +33%
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? Apr 13 $131 +$19 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 25 $2,364 +$12 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 21 $43 −$2 -4%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 21 $474 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 18 $447 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 16 $503 −$1 -0%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 16 $5 −$2 -31%
Pacers vs. Celtics Jan 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Nets vs. Knicks Jan 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $155 −$30 -19%
Bulls vs. Nets Jan 17 $15 −$1 -5%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jan 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Thunder vs. Rockets Jan 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Jan 15 $80 −$78 -97%
Jazz vs. Bulls Jan 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Nets vs. Pelicans Jan 15 $30 +$16 +54%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jan 15 $30 −$20 -67%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jan 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5 Jan 14 $52 −$8 -16%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Jan 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Suns vs. Heat Jan 14 $100 +$135 +135%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jan 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 13 $30 −$4 -13%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jan 13 $30 −$1 -2%
Hornets vs. Clippers Jan 13 $100 +$65 +65%
Lakers vs. Kings Jan 13 $50 −$5 -11%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 13 $42 +$64 +151%
Nets vs. Mavericks Jan 13 $50 +$4 +8%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Jan 13 $100 +$197 +197%
Rockets vs. Kings Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jan 12 $10 +$28 +282%
Bucks vs. Nuggets Jan 12 $40 −$16 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $22 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $107 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 92¢ $183 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $27 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $6 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $17 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 91¢ $91 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $182 4d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $2 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $52 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $15 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 47¢ $0 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 47¢ $47 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $8 4d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $41 4d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $58 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $6 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 10¢ $19 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $33 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 42¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.05 · official $114.05 · 225 history records