Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c23…9788 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$280 (-33%) realized −$280 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$233
14 days−$233
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$35
sports 34% −$198
crypto 25% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -28.5% -35.3% 27% 27% -43.3%
≤30d 22 -28.5% -35.3% 27% 27% -43.3%
≤90d 41 -39.8% -45.6% 20% 20% -43.1%
all 41 -39.8% -45.6% 20% 20% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 20% -43.1%
10% -50.8% 20% -48.6%
15% -55.5% 15% -53.5%
20% -59.9% 15% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 33
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage84d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$43 -84%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $42 +$27 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $70 −$15 -21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $1 +$4 +408%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$31 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 24 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 24 $21 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$21 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$15 +153%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 97¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $100 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $19 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 8h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $6 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $42 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $36 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records