Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5c20…439b crypto 862 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$416 (-4%) realized −$409 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate64%532W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$1,904
14 days−$1,915
30 days−$1,459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$204
weather 20% −$326
other 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -40.8% -46.5% 56% 5% -61.4%
≤30d 576 -7.2% -16.1% 60% 36% -34.1%
≤90d 825 -1.3% -10.7% 64% 47% -13.8%
all 825 -1.3% -10.7% 64% 47% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 47% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 39% -22.0%
15% -27.1% 32% -29.6%
20% -34.2% 25% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$483
Realized−$409
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses532 / 293
Open positions36
Markets (closed)825 / 862
History coverage54d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 96¢ 96¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 98¢ 70¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? No 95¢ 89¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 60¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 15 $17 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $7 0m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 10m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 12m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 44m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 54m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.13 · official $482.16 (match) · 2102 history records