Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
5C 0x5c1b…4b4f politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,215 (+14%) realized −$413 · open +$1,628
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,107per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$9,747now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$1,220
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.2% +3.3% 100% 100% +3.3%
≤30d 2 -42.9% -48.3% 50% 50% +3.0%
≤90d 2 -42.9% -48.3% 50% 50% +3.0%
all 2 -42.9% -48.3% 50% 50% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 50% +3.0%
10% -53.3% 0% -6.8%
15% -57.8% 0% -15.8%
20% -61.9% 0% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -688% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -688% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$424 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$9,747
Realized−$413
Unrealized+$1,628
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage85d
Avg bet$1,107
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7,634 $9,192 +$1,558 (+20%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $194 $189 −$5 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Yes 26¢ 94¢ $30 $109 +$79 (+264%)
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? No 61¢ 65¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Yes 70¢ 44¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? Jun 27 $60 +$9 +14%
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 05 $493 −$424 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat? BUY Yes 76¢ $196 1h
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? SELL No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? BUY Yes 80¢ $151 1h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 3d
Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? BUY No 61¢ $91 3d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? BUY No 87¢ $60 3d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 4d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 16d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $4,092 16d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 16d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 16d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 16d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 16d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $331 16d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $0 22d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $1 22d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $1 22d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $1 22d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $1 22d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $1 22d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $5 24d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $1 24d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $5 24d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $5 24d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $7 24d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $10 24d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 24d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 5¢ $2 24d
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? SELL No 7¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,746.72 · official $9,746.72 (match) · 126 history records