Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c18…ccfd other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$992 (+10%) realized +$1,001 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%17W / 48L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$1,120
14 days+$858
30 days+$858
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$70
sports 16% +$726
crypto 10% +$215
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +13.1% +2.3% 29% 27% +3.9%
≤30d 65 +5.5% -4.6% 26% 25% -0.4%
≤90d 65 +5.5% -4.6% 26% 25% -0.4%
all 65 +5.5% -4.6% 26% 25% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 25% -0.4%
10% -13.7% 22% -10.0%
15% -22.0% 20% -18.7%
20% -29.7% 17% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$37 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,274
Realized+$1,001
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses17 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage9d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1,263 $1,257 −$6 (-0%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $504 −$45 -9%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 +$100 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$112 +365%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$27 -89%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$242 +784%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 −$149 -74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,004 +$215 +21%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $607 +$255 +42%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$6 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 −$9 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$7 -27%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,076 +$274 +26%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$11 -36%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$88 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$17 -56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$136 +442%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$17 -82%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$28 -91%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$332 +324%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$69 +226%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$47 +227%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$11 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $54 35m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $164 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $95 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $294 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $409 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 11h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 13h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 29h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 31h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 33h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 34h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 34h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 35h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 35h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 36h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 39h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $53 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,219 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $802 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,274.49 · official $1,274.85 (match) · 131 history records