Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5c14…82f9 weather 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%125W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$13
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 80 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 122 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 128 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×128.83 per $1 lost it wins $128.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses125 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage117d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $342 $342 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $342 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $341 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $278 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $284 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 10 $305 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 8? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 8? Jun 09 $259 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 7 Jun 08 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $266 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $244 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 5? Jun 05 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $195 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 3? Jun 04 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $132 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $342 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $342 17h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $341 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $120 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $226 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $340 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $337 5d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $67 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $278 6d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $61 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $284 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $55 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $250 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $335 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $336 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $337 9d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $167 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $135 11d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $38 11d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $305 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $233 12d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $77 12d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $83 13d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $259 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.87 · official $341.87 (match) · 277 history records