Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c0e…9d08 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%39W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$21
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.5% -5.4% 80% 60% -5.2%
≤30d 52 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 50% -15.2%
≤90d 67 -14.6% -22.7% 58% 46% -16.9%
all 67 -14.6% -22.7% 58% 46% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 46% -16.9%
10% -30.1% 33% -24.9%
15% -36.9% 22% -32.2%
20% -43.0% 10% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses39 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage37d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 42¢ 48¢ $47 $53 +$6 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$10 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$10 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$2 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 01 $13 +$5 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $11 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $21 −$18 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $31 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $26 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 31 $21 +$7 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $6 −$4 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 31 $16 +$6 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 31 $22 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 31 $32 +$8 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $16 +$8 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $6 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 27 $11 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 27 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 27 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 27 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 27 $64 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 26 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 26 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 26 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $15 +$4 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $47 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $23 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $0 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $0 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $7 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.41 · official $60.15 · 226 history records