Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5C 0x5c0a…0fbf other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$294 (-65%) realized −$292 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -87% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -88% what you keep after slip

Net edge-88%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-88.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-85.3%	-86.7%	0%	0%	-70.1%
≤30d	8	-87.2%	-88.4%	0%	0%	-87.4%
≤90d	8	-87.2%	-88.4%	0%	0%	-87.4%
all	8	-87.2%	-88.4%	0%	0%	-87.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-88.4%	0%	-87.4%
10%	-89.5%	0%	-88.6%
15%	-90.5%	0%	-89.7%
20%	-91.4%	0%	-90.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -87% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$37 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$104

Realized−$292

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 8

Open positions3

Markets (closed)8 / 11

History coverage9d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$92	$92	−$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$8	$7	−$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 United States?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$1	−$1	-86%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$14	−$14	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$34	−$33	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$9	−$9	-97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	Jun 23	$54	−$6	-11%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$200	−$198	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$94	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 United States?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	15h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	15h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	15h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	15h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	16h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$18	16h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	16h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	27¢	$48	16h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	29¢	$54	17h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	66¢	$200	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.58 · official $103.58 (match) · 16 history records