trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +14.4% | +3.5% | 25% | 25% | -43.1% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +14.4% | +3.5% | 25% | 25% | -43.1% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +14.4% | +3.5% | 25% | 25% | -43.1% |
| all | 12 | +14.4% | +3.5% | 25% | 25% | +31.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +3.5% | 25% | +31.8% |
| 10% | -6.4% | 25% | +19.2% |
| 15% | -15.4% | 25% | +7.6% |
| 20% | -23.7% | 25% | -2.9% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$1 | -16% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 | Jun 14 | $1 | +$2 | +194% |
| Spread: Canada (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -98% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 30? | Dec 29 | $5 | +$16 | +327% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 27 | $13 | −$7 | -54% |
| No airdrop in 2025? | Dec 27 | $5 | −$1 | -15% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 28? | Dec 27 | $6 | −$4 | -65% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 31? | Dec 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Aug 13 | $30 | +$68 | +227% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jul 21 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jul 21 | $20 | −$12 | -58% |