Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5c04…6587
other · 364 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$423 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$448 · open +$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$195
Realized−$448
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses166 / 188
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)354 / 364
History coverage89d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%
Chart Positions 13 History 354 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$39
14 days−$66
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 80¢ 85¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 81¢ 96¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 42¢ 96¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+127%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+85%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 +$26 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $95 −$24 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $42 −$7 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$2 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $14 −$3 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $95 −$22 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $44 +$15 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $66 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $27 −$4 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $45 +$9 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $32 +$5 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $21 −$7 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $29 −$25 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $32 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $13 −$9 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $82 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $96 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 04 $9 −$5 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 04 $103 −$16 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 04 $76 −$4 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 04 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 04 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $57 +$7 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 04 $17 −$5 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $29 −$12 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 02 $66 −$9 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $6 +$5 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $84 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $108 +$14 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $54 −$5 -10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$27 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $91 −$14 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$442
sports 0% +$18
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 42¢ $5 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 59¢ $7 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $12 11h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 11h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $3 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $15 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $17 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $11 12h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $12 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.7% -13.7% 44% 33% -13.8%
≤30d 114 -8.3% -17.1% 39% 22% -12.0%
≤90d 354 -6.1% -15.1% 47% 26% -11.7%
all 354 -6.1% -15.1% 47% 26% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 26% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 10% -20.1%
15% -30.6% 6% -27.9%
20% -37.4% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.02 · official $195.02 (match) · 3500 history records