Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c03…a4f0 crypto 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-5%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%55W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.9% -6.9% 20% 20% -27.3%
≤30d 5 +2.9% -6.9% 20% 20% -27.3%
≤90d 17 -16.2% -24.2% 35% 18% -23.3%
all 139 -5.1% -14.1% 40% 30% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 30% -16.2%
10% -22.3% 24% -24.2%
15% -29.8% 21% -31.6%
20% -36.7% 17% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses55 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage99d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$29 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 02 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 02 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8PM ET Apr 02 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 02 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 02 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 02 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7PM ET Apr 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3PM ET Apr 01 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2PM ET Apr 01 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 01 $25 −$12 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 29 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 29 $12 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 29 $13 +$15 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 29 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 29 $14 −$6 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 29 $35 −$27 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 29 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 29 $16 −$13 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 29 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 29 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 29 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 29 $40 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 29 $30 +$24 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 29 $22 −$14 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 28 $3 +$31 +1046%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 28 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 27 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $8 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $8 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $7 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $7 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $9 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 513 history records