Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c02…ad12 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$342 (-30%) realized −$342 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$258
14 days−$356
30 days−$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% −$117
sports 12% −$141
other 8% −$18
world 7% −$64
crypto 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.5% -24.5% 59% 32% -35.0%
≤30d 47 -27.3% -34.2% 51% 26% -38.4%
≤90d 47 -27.3% -34.2% 51% 26% -38.4%
all 47 -27.3% -34.2% 51% 26% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 26% -38.4%
10% -40.5% 11% -44.3%
15% -46.2% 9% -49.6%
20% -51.5% 2% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage9d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? No 77¢ 76¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $268 −$168 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$4 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $181 +$26 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $157 +$23 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $142 −$141 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -29%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $70 −$56 -80%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 77¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 30¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 87¢ $181 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 87¢ $56 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $45 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 82¢ $105 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $39 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.25 · official $34.25 (match) · 102 history records