Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5c02…c97f other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$5
other 31% +$1
crypto 9% $0
politics 7% +$1
sports 6% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -23.9% -31.1% 0% 0% -31.1%
≤30d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 67% 17% -6.9%
≤90d 7 -15.2% -23.3% 57% 14% -6.9%
all 33 -5.2% -14.2% 61% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 6% -8.3%
10% -22.4% 3% -17.1%
15% -29.9% 0% -25.1%
20% -36.8% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage472d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $8 −$2 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $5 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $48 +$3 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $9 +$1 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $46 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Letitia James win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jeremy Jordan win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 20 Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +31%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11? Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $4 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 03 $20 $0 +2%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 31 $19 $0 +1%
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Neutral" on March 31? Mar 29 $19 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 29 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 20 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $5 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $18 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $32 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $48 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $48 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 70¢ $46 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $51 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 25d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 94¢ $5 356d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 93¢ $5 376d
Will Jeremy Jordan win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 20 SELL No 95¢ $5 376d
Will Jeremy Jordan win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 20 BUY No 95¢ $5 377d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 377d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 41¢ $5 377d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 31¢ $4 378d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? BUY No 99¢ $1 392d
Will Letitia James win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci BUY Yes 0¢ $0 400d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 410d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $18 425d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.81 · official $54.81 (match) · 86 history records