Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5B
0x5bff…63e0
other · 114 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$5,875 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,978 · open +$1,355
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30,078
Realized+$3,978
Unrealized+$1,355
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)106 / 114
History coverage602d
Avg bet$1,104
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 8 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$42
14 days−$92
30 days+$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 86¢ 93¢ $18,150 $19,517 +$1,367 (+8%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 80¢ 84¢ $10,000 $10,438 +$438 (+4%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $516 $68 −$448 (-87%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $81 −$81 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$809 +809%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $314 +$15 +5%
Will Michele Boldrin win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Lazio win Coppa Italia? May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $106 +$114 +107%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $39 +$142 +368%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 01 $100 −$19 -19%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Feb 13 $190 +$104 +55%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Feb 13 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $213 +$20 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 01 $2,700 −$35 -1%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 28 $211 +$94 +44%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jan 19 $100 +$20 +20%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 18 $200 +$149 +75%
US forces in Venezuela by November 30? Jan 03 $40 −$40 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Jan 03 $48 −$48 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jan 03 $196 −$196 -100%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jan 02 $3,551 +$263 +7%
Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times du Dec 29 $29 +$24 +82%
Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on Dec 29 $24 +$71 +294%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 28 $5 −$1 -12%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Dec 28 $199 −$175 -88%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Dec 15 $7,800 +$897 +12%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Alia Nov 15 $1,185 +$34 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 18 $3,662 −$636 -17%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10? Oct 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3? Oct 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? Oct 18 $63 −$26 -41%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Oct 17 $1,806 +$99 +6%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Oct 17 $1,500 −$22 -1%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Isra Oct 13 $6 +$33 +524%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Oct 10 $231 +$99 +43%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $473 +$47 +10%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 09 $2,504 +$11 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 16 $6,969 +$907 +13%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 08 $7,000 +$1,035 +15%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Sep 06 $288 +$22 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$3,358
world 24% +$1,634
politics 13% +$455
crypto 5% +$168
sports 3% −$325
culture 1% +$145
tech 1% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 3d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 6d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 6d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 8d
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 8d
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 76¢ $30 8d
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 8d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 10d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 11d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 11d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $902 11d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 15d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 15d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 15d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 15d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL No 100¢ $330 15d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 15d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 95¢ $314 20d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $36 25d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $54 25d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 80¢ $10,080 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 +11.8% +1.1% 33% 25% +68.4%
≤90d 17 +6.4% -3.7% 29% 24% +33.5%
all 106 -3.5% -12.7% 42% 26% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 26% -5.3%
10% -21.0% 21% -14.4%
15% -28.7% 18% -22.7%
20% -35.7% 15% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,077.98 · official $30,077.98 (match) · 699 history records