Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bfe…9f14 weather 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-9%) realized −$11 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%23W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$7
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% −$19
crypto 38% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +29.0% +16.7% 50% 50% +12.1%
≤30d 66 -2.4% -11.7% 35% 32% -12.9%
≤90d 66 -2.4% -11.7% 35% 32% -12.9%
all 66 -2.4% -11.7% 35% 32% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 32% -12.9%
10% -20.2% 30% -21.3%
15% -27.9% 30% -28.9%
20% -35.0% 24% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses23 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $13 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 30? May 30 $3 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 30? May 30 $3 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records