Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5bfd…a57e sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$966 (+44%) realized +$965 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 42L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$617
14 days+$847
30 days+$847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$980
other 27% −$87
crypto 2% −$50
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +55.1% +40.3% 34% 34% +48.8%
≤30d 62 +40.1% +26.8% 37% 37% +28.5%
≤90d 62 +40.1% +26.8% 37% 37% +28.5%
all 66 +35.8% +22.9% 36% 36% +27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.9% 36% +27.7%
10% +11.1% 36% +15.5%
15% +0.4% 36% +4.3%
20% -9.4% 36% -5.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$25 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$965
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 42
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage222d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 24¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $51 −$49 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $52 −$51 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $51 +$282 +550%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$32 +156%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $32 −$31 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $15 +$56 +365%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $19 +$32 +165%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $12 −$12 -97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $58 +$100 +172%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $78 +$135 +172%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $71 +$90 +126%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $5 +$66 +1290%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $75 +$251 +335%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 25 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 −$34 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$84 +165%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $15 +$53 +344%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $46 +$61 +134%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 −$3 -6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 −$3 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $5 +$28 +550%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 +$36 +197%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$38 +250%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $16 +$22 +137%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $41 +$30 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $46 +$83 +180%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $59 +$31 +52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 −$24 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $32 +$42 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $51 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $50 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $52 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $51 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $67 42h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $32 43h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 43h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 43h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $20 44h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 5¢ $12 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 11¢ $12 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 21¢ $15 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $58 3d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $91 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? SELL Yes 78¢ $71 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $70 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 81¢ $325 3d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 4d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $78 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $71 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $75 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.18 · official $148.20 (match) · 110 history records