Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5bfd…2a38 crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%49W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$6
crypto 13% +$3
politics 4% −$1
other 4% −$4
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 62 -0.1% -9.6% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses49 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage526d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 03 $27 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? Oct 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 02 $37 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 01 $15 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $51 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $62 30d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $17 62d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $61 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 92d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 122d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 150d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $52 151d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $17 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $45 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $22 211d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $42 212d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 241d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $27 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $33 242d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $43 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $26 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $38 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $48 335d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $37 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.92 · official $80.92 (match) · 127 history records