Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bfc…ce11 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
other 25% $0
politics 13% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 35 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.05 per $1 lost it wins $6.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage392d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $95 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $59 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $29 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $47 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $23 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 10 $24 $0 +1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? Jul 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 05 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $15 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $16 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $28 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $2 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $30 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $24 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $6 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $27 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $6 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $5 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $12 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $15 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $19 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $20 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $9 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records