Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bfc…9c2d other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$798 (+30%) realized +$799 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%35W / 48L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$304
14 days+$424
30 days+$667
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$352
sports 29% +$384
crypto 7% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -11.8% -20.2% 32% 32% +22.3%
≤30d 41 +15.5% +4.5% 44% 44% +24.2%
≤90d 83 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 42% +17.8%
all 83 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 42% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 42% +17.8%
10% -15.0% 41% +6.5%
15% -23.3% 39% -3.8%
20% -30.8% 37% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$17 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$799
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 48
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage46d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$80 +53%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $9 +$42 +468%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$37 +74%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$54 +107%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$29 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $111 +$150 +135%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$3 -9%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$32 +63%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $70 +$66 +94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$67 +223%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 +$51 +170%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$52 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$52 +259%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$37 +186%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 08 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $15 +$24 +163%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 −$11 -71%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$36 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 +$20 +66%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $207 +$190 +92%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $150 −$146 -97%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 25 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $110 +$283 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 21 $24 +$28 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $30 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 20 $50 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $6 +$7 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 19h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $95 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $27 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $50 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.11 · official $145.11 (match) · 178 history records