Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bf2…faa1 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 36L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$2
other 41% +$14
politics 10% +$5
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +94.5% +76.0% 43% 14% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +36.1% +23.2% 22% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 18 +36.1% +23.2% 22% 6% -9.9%
all 52 +14.7% +3.7% 31% 10% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 10% -7.8%
10% -6.2% 8% -16.6%
15% -15.3% 6% -24.7%
20% -23.6% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage472d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $30 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $26 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $16 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 10 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $3 $0 -10%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $17 +$7 +45%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $2 +$5 +266%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $12 $0 +3%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $29 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $29 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $30 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $26 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $8 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.00 · official $29.00 (match) · 154 history records