Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5B 0x5be5…d48e sports 307 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$213 (-7%) realized −$219 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%176W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$91
14 days−$74
30 days−$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$137
other 16% −$123
world 1% +$4
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.3% -18.9% 51% 51% -25.1%
≤30d 281 -4.0% -13.2% 57% 53% -20.1%
≤90d 301 -1.8% -11.1% 58% 55% -17.8%
all 301 -1.8% -11.1% 58% 55% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 55% -17.8%
10% -19.6% 43% -25.6%
15% -27.4% 18% -32.8%
20% -34.5% 7% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses176 / 125
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions6
Markets (closed)301 / 307
History coverage36d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 40¢ 50¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+26%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 80¢ 86¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 82¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+16%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Under 84¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 32¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Under 80¢ 64¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -32%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $10 +$2 +25%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$20 -67%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -35%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -90%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$5 -45%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$3 +34%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 −$26 -66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $9 −$3 -30%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$4 -37%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $10 −$4 -38%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $10 −$4 -42%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -7%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $10 +$4 +37%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $10 −$4 -42%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $10 −$4 -36%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $10 −$4 -45%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Federica Urgesi Jun 09 $10 +$3 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$3 +32%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 09 $10 +$2 +22%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 42¢ $6 43m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $10 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 9h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 90¢ $10 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $10 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $10 18h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $10 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $10 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 52¢ $7 20h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 98¢ $13 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $10 22h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 72¢ $10 22h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 72¢ $10 22h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $10 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 83¢ $13 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 96¢ $13 31h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $10 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $10 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $10 34h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 96¢ $13 43h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $10 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 8¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.48 · official $73.79 · 731 history records