Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5be1…3371 sports 699 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,872 (-12%) realized −$1,872 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%394W / 305L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418
7 days−$160
14 days−$226
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,110
sports 33% −$806
crypto 20% −$90
world 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 53% -15.5%
≤30d 131 -9.6% -18.2% 56% 52% -17.8%
≤90d 699 -11.1% -19.5% 56% 50% -21.4%
all 699 -11.1% -19.5% 56% 50% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 50% -21.4%
10% -27.2% 40% -28.9%
15% -34.3% 31% -35.8%
20% -40.7% 24% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,872
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses394 / 305
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)699 / 699
History coverage78d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 699 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$12 +24%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $297 −$297 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +121%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $182 −$182 -100%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $161 +$21 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $200 +$21 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $156 +$35 +23%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $25 +$40 +158%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $69 +$21 +31%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $259 +$59 +23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $85 +$174 +206%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$15 +59%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 +$53 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $34 +$28 +81%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$20 +149%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $29 −$4 -13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $58 +$64 +109%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $58 +$25 +44%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $44 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Philippines 1 - 2 Myanmar? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $25 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $34 +$21 +60%
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $50 1h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Canada leading at halftime? BUY 45¢ $1 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $297 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $182 10h
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $182 10h
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 88¢ $161 19h
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $200 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $156 2d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 80¢ $91 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $69 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $318 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $259 3d
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $259 3d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY No 32¢ $85 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1587 history records