Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bdb…e478 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 31% −$3
politics 8% $0
crypto 3% +$2
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 30 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 3% -9.7%
10% -13.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -22.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -29.6% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage454d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $31 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $60 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 24 $8 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 12 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 07 $1 +$2 +228%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $1 $0 -30%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $14 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Mar 27 $2 $0 -2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $30 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $30 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $27 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $3 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $30 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 96¢ $30 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $30 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $22 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $31 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $22 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $11 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $33 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.57 · official $29.57 (match) · 119 history records