Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bda…b5af crypto 517 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$947 (-2%) realized −$947 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate81%421W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$36
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -1.6% -11.0% 84% 31% -13.9%
≤30d 102 -3.7% -12.8% 83% 32% -13.6%
≤90d 517 -0.7% -10.1% 81% 40% -12.1%
all 517 -0.7% -10.1% 81% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 40% -12.1%
10% -18.7% 24% -20.5%
15% -26.6% 12% -28.2%
20% -33.8% 5% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$77 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$947
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses421 / 96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)517 / 517
History coverage70d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 517 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$6 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1377 history records