Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5bd9…7eeb crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+6%) realized −$4 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$30
crypto 28% +$48
world 24% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 43% +2.0%
≤30d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 43% +2.0%
≤90d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 43% +2.0%
all 7 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 43% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 43% +2.0%
10% -21.6% 43% -7.8%
15% -29.2% 43% -16.7%
20% -36.1% 43% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$14 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 64¢ 74¢ $200 $230 +$30 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$45 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 28 $100 −$20 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.69 · official $229.69 (match) · 15 history records