Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bd7…85f7 crypto 696 markets active 1d ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$450 (-5%) realized −$450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%375W / 321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$73
14 days−$63
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$576
other 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +8.7% -1.6% 40% 40% -16.4%
≤30d 371 -2.6% -11.9% 46% 44% -15.8%
≤90d 696 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 36% -15.6%
all 696 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 36% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 36% -15.6%
10% -22.8% 33% -23.7%
15% -30.3% 32% -31.1%
20% -37.1% 30% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses375 / 321
Open positions0
Markets (closed)696 / 696
History coverage53d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 696 Trades
no open positions (198 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$14 +218%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$12 +143%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$13 +173%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$8 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +140%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$11 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$14 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$11 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +159%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +138%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$25 +145%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +126%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$12 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$38 +326%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$11 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $8 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $9 39h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 1371 history records