Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5bd6…a02e other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$33
politics 15% −$6
economics 6% −$2
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% +$44
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 +2.6% -7.2% 10% 6% -9.5%
all 112 +2.6% -7.2% 10% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.0% 6% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 6% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage87d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $187 $187 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $336 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $164 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 22 $364 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $306 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $313 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $317 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $302 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $306 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $304 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $299 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $317 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $299 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $313 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $318 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $325 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $321 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $634 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $303 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $313 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 25 $325 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $307 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $328 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $321 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $328 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $317 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $312 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $333 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 20h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 25h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $187 28h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $67 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $68 5d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $44 11d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $53 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $53 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $68 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $68 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 21d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 24d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $70 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 25d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $45 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.58 · official $235.49 (match) · 329 history records