Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5B 0x5bd3…88f5 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$3,014 (-29%) realized −$3,321 · open +$307

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%12W / 30L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$203per market

Trades / day13.9pace

Fees−$116est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$2,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-44.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	42	-38.9%	-44.8%	29%	29%	-44.1%
≤30d	42	-38.9%	-44.8%	29%	29%	-44.1%
≤90d	42	-38.9%	-44.8%	29%	29%	-44.1%
all	42	-38.9%	-44.8%	29%	29%	-44.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.8%	29%	-44.1%
10%	-50.0%	29%	-49.4%
15%	-54.9%	24%	-54.3%
20%	-59.3%	14%	-58.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -76% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$232 vs −$200 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$2,107

Realized−$3,321

Unrealized+$307

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses12 / 30

Est. fees paid−$116

Open positions9

Markets (closed)42 / 51

History coverage4d

Avg bet$203

Trades / day13.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 42 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	Over	19¢	56¢	$200	$595	+$395 (+197%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	28¢	54¢	$200	$382	+$182 (+91%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Under	48¢	84¢	$200	$348	+$148 (+74%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	No	51¢	80¢	$200	$312	+$112 (+56%)
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Türkiye	72¢	94¢	$200	$260	+$60 (+30%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	23¢	20¢	$200	$170	−$30 (-15%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	Under	67¢	14¢	$200	$40	−$160 (-80%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5	Under	22¢	0¢	$200	$0	−$200 (-100%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5	Under	45¢	0¢	$200	$0	−$200 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$203	+$232	+114%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$202	+$92	+46%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 26	$202	+$76	+38%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	Jun 26	$202	+$80	+40%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$204	−$200	-98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$205	−$200	-98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$205	+$1,045	+510%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)	Jun 25	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$204	+$309	+152%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$205	−$200	-98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	Jun 25	$202	+$101	+50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$203	−$200	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$205	−$200	-98%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	Jun 25	$201	+$49	+24%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Jun 25	$202	+$120	+60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$202	+$69	+34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$204	−$200	-98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 24	$201	−$200	-99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$205	−$200	-98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	Jun 24	$201	−$200	-100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 24	$204	−$200	-98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$204	−$200	-98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$203	−$200	-99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$203	−$200	-98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$204	−$200	-98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$204	−$200	-98%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$204	+$323	+158%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 23	$204	−$200	-98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$205	−$200	-98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$204	−$200	-98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$203	−$200	-99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$201	−$200	-99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$203	−$200	-99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$204	−$200	-98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$204	+$284	+140%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$204	−$200	-98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 22	$205	−$200	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 22	$205	−$200	-98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 22	$204	−$200	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$204	−$200	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	19¢	$205	53m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	28¢	$204	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	51¢	$203	1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	48¢	$203	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	23¢	$205	1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	22¢	$205	23h
Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY Türkiye	72¢	$202	23h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	67¢	$202	23h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$203	23h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	31¢	$204	23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	22¢	$205	23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	68¢	$202	23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$203	23h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)	BUY Curaçao	36¢	$204	23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	16¢	$205	23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	44¢	$203	26h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Tunisia	71¢	$202	26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	21¢	$205	26h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	72¢	$202	27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	16¢	$205	29h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	BUY South Africa	66¢	$202	35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	39¢	$204	35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	26¢	$204	36h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Czechia	75¢	$201	42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	18¢	$205	43h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	90¢	$201	43h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	BUY Haiti	80¢	$201	43h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY Haiti	62¢	$202	43h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Haiti	39¢	$204	43h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	74¢	$202	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,106.72 · official $2,106.82 (match) · 63 history records