Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5B 0x5bd2…db15 crypto 1566 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate84%1326W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$28
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -38.5% -44.4% 55% 33% -19.6%
≤30d 117 -11.2% -19.6% 78% 48% -9.8%
≤90d 820 -1.4% -10.8% 81% 46% -10.0%
all 1583 -0.8% -10.3% 84% 30% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 30% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1326 / 257
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1583 / 1566
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1583 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 58¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -965%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -967%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -654%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -824%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1019%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -996%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1859%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1654%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -696%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -908%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -671%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 44m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 12h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 95¢ $2 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY No 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 96¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 95¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.18 · official $2.10 (match) · 3500 history records