Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bd1…9c06 crypto 1025 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$361 (-4%) realized −$361 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate75%770W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days−$157
14 days−$157
30 days−$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$358
other 1% −$12
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -7.0% -15.9% 77% 77% -13.6%
≤30d 411 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 55% -14.3%
≤90d 1025 -5.3% -14.3% 75% 32% -12.8%
all 1025 -5.3% -14.3% 75% 32% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 32% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 24% -21.2%
15% -30.0% 11% -28.8%
20% -36.9% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses770 / 255
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1025 / 1025
History coverage62d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1025 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $49 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $49 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $54 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $60 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $60 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $64 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $55 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $54 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $55 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $55 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $55 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $54 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $55 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $54 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $64 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$12 +20%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 19 $45 +$15 +34%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $60 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $33 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $64 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $16 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $61 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $57 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $60 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $57 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $56 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $55 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3054 history records