Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bce…d19e sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized −$1 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$14
other 12% +$50
crypto 10% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +125.9% +104.4% 100% 100% +104.4%
≤30d 23 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 57% +6.3%
≤90d 23 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 57% +6.3%
all 23 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 57% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 57% +6.3%
10% -12.4% 43% -3.9%
15% -20.9% 43% -13.2%
20% -28.6% 43% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage28d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Keyd 56¢ 74¢ $32 $42 +$10 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$63 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 30 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $13 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $34 +$5 +15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $15 +$10 +64%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $7 −$7 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 30 $11 +$9 +80%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $8 +$6 +71%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $38 +$25 +67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $50 −$10 -20%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $62 −$36 -59%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $13 −$4 -32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $11 +$9 +88%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 +$7 +66%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $27 +$5 +18%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $57 +$11 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Keyd 56¢ $32 17m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 90¢ $112 22m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 92¢ $28 25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 65¢ $20 25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 36¢ $11 25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif SELL Aurora 99¢ $20 25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 43¢ $14 25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 14¢ $2 25d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 39¢ $5 25d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $20 25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 50¢ $10 25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif SELL Tundra Esports 67¢ $0 25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 99¢ $14 25d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif SELL Tundra Esports 44¢ $0 25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif SELL Tundra Esports 43¢ $5 25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 57¢ $8 25d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Tundra Esports 42¢ $5 25d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL LGD Gaming 87¢ $63 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.20 · official $37.67 · 78 history records