Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bce…3948 sports 163 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,516 (-9%) realized −$1,514 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%85W / 76L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$754
14 days−$599
30 days−$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,237
other 25% −$223
crypto 3% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -25.3% -32.4% 46% 39% -29.6%
≤30d 132 -15.4% -23.4% 52% 48% -16.2%
≤90d 161 -15.7% -23.7% 53% 48% -19.1%
all 161 -15.7% -23.7% 53% 48% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 48% -19.1%
10% -31.0% 35% -26.8%
15% -37.7% 17% -33.9%
20% -43.8% 9% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$63 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,514
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses85 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage40d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$5 +16%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $30 −$5 -15%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$5 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$3 -3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $90 +$8 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$32 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $405 −$232 -57%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $101 +$22 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$102 -34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $81 −$4 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $169 −$169 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $90 +$62 +68%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $55 −$41 -75%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $59 +$41 +70%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $54 +$6 +12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $88 +$12 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $123 +$27 +22%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $12 −$4 -29%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -13%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 5m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 5m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 8m
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 9m
Ecuador leading at halftime? SELL Yes 58¢ $26 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $35 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $98 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $90 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 78¢ $123 5d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $101 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $41 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.85 · official $49.85 (match) · 446 history records