Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5B 0x5bcd…cf4b weather 362 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$4,974 (+6%) realized +$5,022 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate61%216W / 137L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day55.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$280
14 days+$1,232
30 days+$2,729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$4,605
politics 0% −$99
other 0% +$46
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+63.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +184.7% +157.5% 55% 35% -8.2%
≤30d 206 +101.5% +82.3% 56% 28% -6.4%
≤90d 353 +80.2% +63.0% 61% 27% -5.3%
all 353 +80.2% +63.0% 61% 27% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.0% 27% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here +47.4% 19% -14.3%
15% +33.2% 14% -22.6%
20% +20.1% 12% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +120% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$25 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$5,022
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses216 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)353 / 362
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$242
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $50 $109 +$59 (+117%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $57 $78 +$21 (+37%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? No 92¢ 96¢ $31 $33 +$1 (+5%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 62¢ 48¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-22%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $76 $21 −$55 (-72%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 3¢ 2¢ $20 $10 −$11 (-53%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 24¢ 14¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 25¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-37%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $51 $3 −$48 (-94%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $175 +$63 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $168 +$78 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $132 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $446 +$32 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$20 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $159 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$20 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $407 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $712 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $121 +$67 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 −$9 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $176 −$124 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $313 +$76 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $78 −$7 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $110 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $891 −$404 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,654 −$88 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $246 +$119 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $225 +$108 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $105 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $339 +$145 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $622 +$52 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $45 +$21 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1,165 −$400 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $607 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $200 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2,067 +$157 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $342 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $370 +$82 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $238 8m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 38¢ $22 19m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 38¢ $6 19m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 60¢ $22 19m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $8 19m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 25m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 34m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $68 46m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 48m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 55m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 55m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 55m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $23 59m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 2¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $150 9h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 7¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $70 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $72 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 10¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 8¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 8¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.84 · official $297.84 (match) · 3500 history records