Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bcd…d957 sports 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$24 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$87
14 days+$87
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$27
other 27% −$63
politics 8% +$11
world 5% −$6
economics 1% −$11
finance 1% +$5
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +481.0% +425.6% 100% 100% +213.7%
≤30d 6 +220.4% +189.8% 67% 67% +136.0%
≤90d 58 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% +1.7%
all 92 -3.6% -12.8% 47% 45% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 45% -12.9%
10% -21.2% 38% -21.2%
15% -28.8% 28% -28.8%
20% -35.8% 22% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)92 / 96
History coverage220d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 32¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +25%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $5 +$66 +1329%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $5 +$5 +93%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Trump say "The War Is Over" this week? (April 20 - 26) Apr 28 $5 +$6 +117%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 28 $10 +$11 +105%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $5 +$5 +109%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 2 Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26) Apr 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Canucks vs. Oilers Apr 18 $10 +$4 +35%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Penguins vs. Blues Apr 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Red Wings vs. Lightning Apr 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 +$4 +89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 12 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Rangers vs. Stars Apr 12 $10 +$6 +59%
Capitals vs. Penguins Apr 11 $20 +$14 +69%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 +$32 +649%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Devils vs. Red Wings Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $5 +$18 +354%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Partizan vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Apr 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Canucks vs. Kings Apr 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Apr 10 $10 +$4 +37%
Spread: Islanders (-1.5) Apr 10 $10 +$9 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $12 26h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 20d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 20d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 45d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 45d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 46d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 71¢ $5 46d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 46d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 46d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 46d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 52d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 72¢ $10 52d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 51¢ $5 56d
Hurricanes vs. Senators BUY Hurricanes 48¢ $10 56d
Stars vs. Wild BUY Stars 47¢ $5 58d
Ducks vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 63¢ $10 58d
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 60d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 61d
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 2 BUY Yes 50¢ $5 61d
Will Trump say "The War Is Over" this week? (April 20 - 26) BUY Yes 45¢ $5 61d
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26) BUY Yes 43¢ $5 61d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY Yes $5 61d
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $10 62d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 62d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 62d
Canucks vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 74¢ $10 63d
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 64d
Rangers vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 60¢ $10 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.51 · official $37.51 (match) · 148 history records