Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bca…b4e7 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3456 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,440 (-6%) realized −$1,439 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day3456.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3456 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 23% -16.3%
≤30d 47 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 23% -16.3%
≤90d 47 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 23% -16.3%
all 47 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 23% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3456.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 23% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 11% -24.3%
15% -34.2% 0% -31.6%
20% -40.7% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$726) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
80.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$121 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1,439
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 43
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$517
Trades / day3456.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 51¢ 54¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 54¢ 46¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $111 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $182 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $679 −$204 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $726 −$128 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $197 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $533 +$67 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $893 −$274 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $636 +$86 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $623 −$215 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $793 −$30 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $116 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $299 +$61 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $995 −$132 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $425 +$99 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $357 +$69 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $347 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $368 +$94 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $754 +$34 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $769 −$198 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $415 −$96 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $358 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $737 +$77 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $536 +$44 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $179 +$51 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $618 −$122 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $513 −$87 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $286 +$55 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $707 −$92 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $510 +$50 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $1,011 −$168 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $742 −$159 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $885 −$262 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $319 +$27 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $437 +$31 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $405 +$122 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $169 +$25 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $709 −$32 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $713 +$47 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $861 −$77 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $478 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $767 −$117 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.70 · official $27.30 · 3500 history records