trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +6.9% | -3.3% | 100% | 0% | -3.3% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -15.4% | -23.4% | 40% | 20% | -21.3% |
| all | 17 | -6.9% | -15.8% | 24% | 18% | -15.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.8% | 18% | -15.4% |
| 10% | -23.9% | 6% | -23.5% |
| 15% | -31.2% | 6% | -30.8% |
| 20% | -38.0% | 6% | -37.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $39 | $39 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | Jun 11 | $83 | +$6 | +7% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | Apr 29 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | Apr 15 | $130 | +$153 | +117% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 01 | $208 | −$3 | -1% |
| Heat vs. Rockets | Mar 28 | $239 | −$239 | -100% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Mar 18 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 18 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Mar 14 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | Mar 14 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 09 | $10 | +$2 | +19% |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Mar 09 | $22 | +$5 | +22% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 05 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 28 | $11 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 24 | $13 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Feb 20 | $199 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? | Feb 18 | $4 | −$2 | -50% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Feb 16 | $12 | −$2 | -18% |