Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bc5…a9e9 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$176 (-6%) realized −$176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR81%break-even
Win rate81%47W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +81%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 81% -14.5%
≤30d 58 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 81% -14.5%
≤90d 58 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 81% -14.5%
all 58 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 81% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 81% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 29% -22.6%
15% -26.3% 9% -30.1%
20% -33.6% 5% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$61 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses47 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage4d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$21 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$18 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$28 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $34 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$21 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $67 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $65 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $79 −$78 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $82 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records