Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bc0…8d47 crypto 810 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-3%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate68%553W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$15
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$82
other 0% −$2
world 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 59% -28.6%
≤30d 603 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 39% -12.5%
≤90d 613 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 39% -12.7%
all 810 -1.3% -10.7% 68% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 40% -13.8%
10% -19.3% 19% -22.1%
15% -27.1% 6% -29.6%
20% -34.2% 1% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses553 / 257
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)810 / 810
History coverage95d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 810 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2466 history records