Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5bc0…0c1a weather 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%131W / 7L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$14
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 82 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 126 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 138 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×15.37 per $1 lost it wins $15.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses131 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage122d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $344 $344 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $342 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? Jun 23 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $341 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? Jun 22 $341 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $342 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $283 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $342 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $279 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $248 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $295 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $325 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 10 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $299 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 75°F or below on June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 05 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 4? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $241 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 3? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $108 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $344 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $342 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $212 27h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $341 38h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $341 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $342 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $340 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $283 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $342 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $98 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $92 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $110 9d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $340 9d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $279 10d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $78 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $248 11d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $295 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $52 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $325 13d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $337 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $45 14d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $299 15d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $39 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $15 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.27 · official $344.27 (match) · 280 history records