Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bc0…5fb2 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate89%24W / 3L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$1,566per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$86
economics 20% −$12
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
other 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 73% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 73% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 +1.4% -8.3% 82% 0% -9.4%
all 27 +3.4% -6.4% 89% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 4% -9.4%
10% -15.4% 4% -18.0%
15% -23.6% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,544) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.62 per $1 lost it wins $6.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$4,457
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses24 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage189d
Avg bet$1,566
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET Jun 30 $4,433 +$25 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on May 28? Jun 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May? Jun 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 30 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1AM ET Jun 30 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12AM ET Jun 30 $1,081 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET Jun 30 $1,544 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET Jun 30 $1,607 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 29 $6,494 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 29 $10,550 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 29 $8,527 −$12 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 20? May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 27 $4 $0 +1%
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting Apr 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 19 $3 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Mar 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 08 $3 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $7,809 +$24 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 23? Dec 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 December 22-28? Dec 30 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $489 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $656 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $299 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $149 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $500 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $300 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $215 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,457.36 · official $4,457.36 (match) · 144 history records