Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bbf…5304 crypto 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$119 (-2%) realized −$110 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate93%192W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$26
weather 20% +$4
other 8% −$73
tech 5% −$19
sports 2% −$12
economics 2% +$1
finance 1% +$1
world 0% +$1
politics 0% +$2
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 54 -2.9% -12.2% 94% 7% -14.9%
≤90d 123 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 4% -11.2%
all 207 -2.8% -12.0% 93% 10% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 10% -11.6%
10% -20.4% 6% -20.0%
15% -28.1% 3% -27.8%
20% -35.2% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses192 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)207 / 214
History coverage207d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 96¢ 92¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 32¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 39¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on June 3? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $44 −$43 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $60 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 28? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 29? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 29? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 29? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on May 29? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 80°F or higher on May 30? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 27? May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on May 27? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $3 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $10 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $5 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 89¢ $5 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 20d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.00 · official $63.00 (match) · 445 history records