Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bb9…351f other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$113 (+5%) realized +$310 · open −$197
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$626
world 28% −$447
economics 14% +$52
politics 4% −$100
crypto 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -98.6% -98.7% 0% 0% -98.7%
≤30d 1 -98.6% -98.7% 0% 0% -98.7%
≤90d 4 -99.6% -99.7% 0% 0% -99.8%
all 23 -6.4% -15.3% 26% 26% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 26% +2.9%
10% -23.4% 26% -7.0%
15% -30.8% 26% -15.9%
20% -37.6% 26% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$73 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$310
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage361d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 42¢ $197 $1 −$197 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$39 -96%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $150 −$147 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08? Mar 22 $100 +$233 +233%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15? Jan 15 $95 +$404 +426%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $72 −$72 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 4? Dec 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 16 $100 −$56 -56%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $120 +$272 +227%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Nov 25 $200 −$22 -11%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $100 +$285 +285%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $100 +$156 +156%
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Nov 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Nov 20 $200 +$185 +92%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? Oct 28 $143 −$143 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 58d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $60 61d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $150 61d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 96d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 110d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $197 115d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 152d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $500 161d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $95 162d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $72 162d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 162d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 164d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 164d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $30 164d
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 4? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 188d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes $44 192d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 85¢ $392 213d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? SELL Yes 29¢ $178 213d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? BUY Yes 33¢ $200 213d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 215d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 SELL Yes 79¢ $256 217d
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $20 218d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 31¢ $100 218d
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $20 218d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 26¢ $120 218d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes $100 218d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 241d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? BUY Yes 35¢ $140 241d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 52¢ $200 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.28 · official $1.28 (match) · 34 history records