Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bb7…4199 sports 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+9%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate53%77W / 69L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$15
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$14
other 23% +$9
world 13% −$1
crypto 7% −$6
politics 6% +$3
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +17.3% +6.1% 53% 36% +3.0%
≤30d 115 +6.6% -3.5% 48% 30% -4.5%
≤90d 138 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 34% -3.7%
all 146 +6.5% -3.6% 53% 33% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 33% -3.8%
10% -12.8% 26% -13.0%
15% -21.3% 19% -21.4%
20% -29.0% 16% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses77 / 69
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)146 / 151
History coverage121d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) New Zealand 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -56%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $4 −$1 -33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -33%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Dundalk FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Will COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $1 $0 -46%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $2 16m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 47¢ $2 16m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $2 16m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde SELL Juan Estevez 96¢ $2 18m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 98¢ $2 19m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 19m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 23¢ $2 21m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 22m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 28¢ $2 23m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 23m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $1 23m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 45¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 65¢ $2 3h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 65¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Under 27¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $3 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 14h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 69¢ $2 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $2 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $1 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 83¢ $2 22h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 83¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.75 · official $7.83 · 348 history records