Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bb6…abf9 weather 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-25%) realized −$3 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 29% −$1
other 31% −$1
sports 17% −$1
politics 16% −$1
world 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -60.5% -64.3% 30% 25% -37.9%
≤30d 20 -60.5% -64.3% 30% 25% -37.9%
≤90d 20 -60.5% -64.3% 30% 25% -37.9%
all 20 -60.5% -64.3% 30% 25% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.3% 25% -37.9%
10% -67.7% 10% -43.8%
15% -70.8% 10% -49.3%
20% -73.7% 5% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -96% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? No 73¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$2 -114%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +53%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 58m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes $0 15h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Under 68¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $2 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 2d
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $2 3d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY No 73¢ $1 4d
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.94 · official $1.94 (match) · 32 history records