Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bb5…abf6 other 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,423 (+9%) realized +$5,423 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%55W / 49L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$616
7 days+$1,812
14 days+$2,696
30 days+$7,759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$1,038
world 29% +$2,966
crypto 21% +$221
sports 20% +$3,531
politics 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +24.4% +12.5% 46% 33% +8.2%
≤30d 66 +14.7% +3.8% 58% 42% +5.1%
≤90d 87 +9.3% -1.1% 55% 43% +4.5%
all 104 +4.5% -5.5% 53% 42% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 42% +3.0%
10% -14.5% 33% -6.9%
15% -22.8% 26% -15.9%
20% -30.3% 21% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$137 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses55 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage241d
Avg bet$545
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $203 +$245 +121%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $167 −$61 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $351 −$19 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $305 +$146 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 Jun 28 $483 +$583 +121%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2,075 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,091 −$1,091 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $692 +$1,128 +163%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Jun 27 $197 +$644 +327%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 26 $235 −$235 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $240 −$240 -100%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: France O/U Jun 26 $125 +$465 +372%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $800 +$460 +58%
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 26 $26 −$2 -6%
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 26 $44 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $120 −$20 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $215 +$105 +49%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $215 −$51 -24%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $627 +$58 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 24? Jun 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $750 −$30 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $391 −$391 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $1,563 +$1,082 +69%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $190 +$205 +108%
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 18 $106 −$72 -68%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $289 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $286 +$59 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $80 +$82 +102%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $15,328 +$2,983 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $450 +$42 +9%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $430 +$240 +56%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $610 −$300 -49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $530 +$220 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $860 +$31 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 Jun 11 $665 +$222 +33%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $540 −$540 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $173 +$148 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $173 +$109 +63%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $560 +$275 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $284 −$66 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $125 +$34 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $47 +$6 +13%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $475 +$2 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $450 −$46 -10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $560 −$30 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $870 −$95 -11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $410 +$15 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? SELL Yes $1 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? SELL Yes $411 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? SELL Yes $36 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL No $24 19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL No $60 19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL No $21 20m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 16¢ $326 22m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 22m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 23m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 23¢ $451 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes $81 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No $43 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No $36 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No $16 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes $81 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 14¢ $282 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 16¢ $339 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $980.87 · 1008 history records