Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bb4…f8da sports 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$897 (+1%) realized +$796 · open +$101
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%118W / 48L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$410per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$33
14 days+$37
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$28
sports 28% +$361
tech 8% +$820
crypto 7% −$509
economics 4% +$135
finance 3% +$225
politics 2% −$264
culture 1% +$33
world 0% +$50
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 88% 38% -1.7%
≤30d 30 -2.3% -11.6% 63% 43% -1.9%
≤90d 36 -3.9% -13.0% 67% 39% -3.8%
all 166 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 37% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 37% -8.5%
10% -22.7% 19% -17.3%
15% -30.2% 9% -25.3%
20% -37.0% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$89 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$1,569
Realized+$796
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses118 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)166 / 172
History coverage293d
Avg bet$410
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $916 $952 +$36 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 58¢ 72¢ $258 $320 +$62 (+24%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? No 86¢ 84¢ $129 $127 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $65 $71 +$6 (+10%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $71 +$4 +5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $96 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $29 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$6 +40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $60 +$6 +10%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $50 +$7 +13%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $24 −$14 -58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $32 +$5 +15%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $35 +$16 +45%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $28 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $40 +$10 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $90 +$10 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $26 −$25 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $74 −$21 -29%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 04 $401 +$20 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $111 −$15 -14%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $1,026 +$171 +17%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $222 +$27 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 29 $30 −$30 -99%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $29 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 29 $478 +$18 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 29 $965 +$29 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $1,183 +$86 +7%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 17 $1,252 +$6 +0%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $200 +$20 +10%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 15 $1,192 +$34 +3%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 15 $1,208 +$2 +0%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $1,588 −$372 -23%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $50 +$26 +52%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $1,561 +$43 +3%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $230 +$40 +17%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 18 $1,429 +$92 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 19 $72 +$12 +17%
Discord IPO in 2025? Nov 19 $312 +$57 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $73 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 95¢ $71 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $96 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $29 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $60 4d
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $7 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 11d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 12d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 74¢ $37 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $32 13d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 68¢ $35 16d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $40 16d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $28 16d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $917 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,569.01 · official $1,569.03 (match) · 632 history records