Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5B 0x5bb3…cbdc crypto 348 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-5%) realized −$36 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%111W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$25
14 days−$178
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -25.7% -32.8% 27% 27% -39.6%
≤30d 346 -9.2% -17.9% 32% 32% -15.7%
≤90d 346 -9.2% -17.9% 32% 32% -15.7%
all 346 -9.2% -17.9% 32% 32% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 32% -15.7%
10% -25.7% 32% -23.7%
15% -32.9% 32% -31.1%
20% -39.5% 32% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses111 / 235
Open positions2
Markets (closed)346 / 348
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +228%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.32 · official $2.33 (match) · 644 history records